Nifty Market Outlook for 17 oct. 12

Nifty on corrective path
Indian shares closed  flat to higher on Monday after recouping losses in afternoon trade following positiveEuropean cues. Nifty went closer to 5700 level with the index hitting an intraday high of 5,693.70, before closing with gains of 11.20 points at 5,687.25. The much awaited inflation came in at 7.81 percent for the September, which was slightly higher compared to 7.55 percent in August due to hike in diesel price by Rs 5 a  liter in last month. But that was largely in-line with analysts' expectations of 7.73 percent.
        Nifty is expected to face support and resistance between 5,650 and 5,750. Currently, all the technical indicators are in the profit booking phase with RSI at the level of 58. However, MACD which has crossed-over for a bearish indication. The first resistance, for the week ahead, is 5,740 followed by 5,760. In case, Nifty crosses this psychological level, it can further test 5,800 mark on upside. While the first support, for the week ahead, will be at 5,650. A fall below that level could drag Nifty near to 5,600  after hitting fresh 2012 highs, the Indian benchmark indices are expected to take a breather before determining the next direction of the market. FIIs have a huge long position in cash segment but they don’t have in proportionate long positions in stock future, indicating selling could be emerged at higher levels.

                                              3 MONTHS DAILY CHART OF NIFTY


                                            SHORT TERM OUTLOOK ON STOCKS

Stocks with short term Bullish Outlook:
STOCK                                                           S1            S2          R1             R2
HINDALCO                                                 117.9        115.7     121.4        122.7
SIEMENS                                                    687.07      676.03   705.07       712.03

Stocks with short term Bearish Outlook:
STOCK                                                          S1             S2          R1              R2
MARUTI SUZUKI                                     1320.07     1301.88  1370.37    1402.48
INFOSYS                                                   2341.6       2317.6    2400.8       436

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Todays Update : Nifty is likely to correct

Indian shares snapped four-day winning streak Friday owing to profit booking. The index had gained 79 points in early trade following Cabinet’s approval to 49% FDI in insurance and pension. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty, which plunged 899 points intraday due to freak trade by brokerage house, declined 40.65points to end at 5,746.95. The index touched a low of 4,888.20 today due to faulty order punched by adealer of Emkay Shares and Stock Brokers while the BSE Sensex fell more than 300 points. The trading was halted by the NSE between 9:50 am to 10:05 am. On upside if level of 5,800 breaches decisively then we could see rise up to mark of 5,860, on the lower side if level of 5,700 is breaches then Nifty could retrace up to its mild support of 5,620 mark first and thereafter up to its strong support of 5,600. Technical momentum indicators are currently suggesting uptrend in it. Stochastic is currently moving in overbought zone, on the brink of entering into positive territory. RSI is trading in overbought territory at 76 showing negative crossover.Another momentum technical indicator MACD is trading in positive zone, showing positive divergence,also indicating uptrend.

                                             3 MONTHS DAILY CHART OF NIFTY


                                           SHORT TERM OUTLOOK ON STOCKS



Stocks with short term Bullish Outlook:

STOCK                                                     S1              S2            R1              R2
TATA MOTORS                                    239.17      197.78       302.22       323.88
HUL                                                        483.67      401.93       607.92       650.43

Stocks with short term Bearish Outlook:
STOCK                                                     S1              S2             R1              R2
HDFC                                                    662.2         574.45        806.75       863.55
HCLTECH                                             541.23       508.92        598.93       624.32



                                                     NEWS TO WATCH  TODAY

1. IVRCL plunges over 9 per cent as Essel Group offloads shares
2. HDFC plunges 6% as Carlyle sells 3.7% stake for nearly Rs4,300 crore
3. Oil India, IOC buy stake in US shale assets
4. Pepsi cuts price, Coke unlikely to follow the suit.
5. Hike in insurance FDI limit may attract Rs. 30k crore: IRDA

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